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贸易战峰回路转,能见底不?

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发表于 2018-9-15 00:03:03 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
  



  

  今日3个消息令人关注。
  1
  一个是,在美国已经讨论完2000亿产品提高关税的名单后,老川说还有2500亿元的产品名单在后头等着的情况下,突然又传出美国邀请中国贸易代表团继续谈判的消息,这个消息对市场来说估计是喜出望外了,昨日美国股市就有反应了,标普与道琼斯指数都上涨了,然后,今早富时50指数期货在A股开盘前也大涨了。然后A股今日五大指数全红了。
  当然,上证指数还在2700点以下呆着,不过,成交金额超过了1000亿元。
  这事感觉还是相当有面子的啊!本来对方气势汹汹地备着很多工具,一付打不赢此仗绝不下战场的样子,但是,出人意料,今日竟然又温温柔柔的邀请再次磋商了。
  估计美国人民拘着他们国家的总统,不能让他老人家这么任性,这样打遍天下,东西都搞贵了,最吃亏的还是美国人民、美国企业吧?
  而且,说到底,又不是啥你死我活的事,不就是做个生意,谁吃亏谁占便宜的事情吗?当然还是谈判比较好,成本也最低。
  对中国而言,降低逆差对我们也是有好处的,毕竟我们可以在人民币升值的时候,多买些好东西回来屯着,满足一下国内人民的生活与生产的需求,有啥不好呢?不能光是出口挣钱,这钱挣了不就是要花的吗?干吗要买美国人的国债,收那么点利息,别说温州人看不上,我都看不上,这都加了多少次息了,才3%左右吧?
  还不如花了实惠,要不然CPI一涨,这利息就等于没有了啊。实在想不通,多进口就多进口一些呗。你国家不进口,一帮人出国游,还是要去买买买的,不如国家批发回来,国民还能买得便宜点,至少路费可以省了。
  希望贸易搏弈能朝着和为贵的方向推进。
  不过,就算这件事摆平了,A股能就此见底了吗?感觉还是不行。贸易战只是制约企业发展前景的一个因素,更多的因素还在制约股市的上涨,令投资者十分担心,例如,吴小平说民企完成了帮助国企的任务,可以不用再干了。相信他这话也不是胡乱说的,如果这真是代表了今后政策的施行方向,那么A股市场上那么多中小创的民营企业就要歇菜了?如果这样,股市别说涨了,估计要跌得更猛了。
  2
  第二个消息令人痛心,是与生命有关的。据证监会公告,中国证监会第十七届发审委专职委员李国春,9月11日参加了证监会2018年第145次发行审核委员会工作会议,审核深圳市隆利科技股份有限公司IPO申请(资料显示,李国春,现任黑龙江证监局公司监管处处长,高级会计师)。但是9月12日早晨,李国春在证监会食堂突然晕倒,心脏骤停逝世。据一位工作人员介绍,李40余岁。
  马上看到一篇文章:愿天堂没有新股发行。
  这新股发行真不是一个好干的活,审得严了,企业可能失去了一个很好的发展机会;审得松了,很可能把造假公司放出来了。
  所以我一直呼吁,选择什么样的公司上市,这样的活就交给市场上的投资者自己去干,他们想赚钱,让他们自己费神去选好公司去,证监会就监督、查处一下有没有违反证监法规的事就行了。
  发审委,总共才多少人?一年到头要审查400多家公司上市,还有再融资,任务确实太重了,责任还很大。
  才40余岁。虽然我不懂医,但我认为就算是猝死,也不可能上一秒还活蹦乱跳的,下一秒就不行了吧?估计之前也有身体不舒服,但是重任在身,抽不出时间去检查,想着身体好能扛过去?没有及时消除隐患?
  当然,还有一个社会新闻也相当令人愤慨,湖南一个人居然开陆虎车上广场上去压无辜的人,真是丧心病狂啊。最新的数据是死亡11人。
  3
  第三个新闻,华夏发行的首只养老基金的规模出来了,虽然只有2亿多,但是感觉还是不错的,毕竟这是华夏自己渠道卖的,没有银行的渠道相助,也没有第三方的大力营销。而且是第一只,市场上观望的情绪相当重。好在华夏自己的员工比较给力,认购了4300万元。
  近期有人问,说是嘉实元和的封闭期快到了,目前折价较多,大约有20%,是否值得买入。从介绍上来看,其一半资产是买的中石化的销售公司的股权,目前的净值,是将这家公司按12倍的市盈率计算的,这样看,感觉还是有点高。考虑到折价因素,不考虑任何税费的话,相当于这资产的年化回报率也就8%左右。可是如果12倍的估值守不住,这净值就还会往下掉,交易价格也会掉,所以隐含的收益率很可能拿不到。还是观望吧。
  双语阅读~
  The trade war has turned to the bottom,
  can you see thestock market bottom?
  Three news today are interesting.
  One is that after the United States has discussed the list of 200 billion products to raise tariffs, Lao Chuan said that there are still 250 billion yuan waiting for the situation, and suddenly there is news that the United States has invited Chinese trade delegations to continue negotiations. The market is estimated to be overjoyed. Yesterday, the US stock market reacted. Both the S&P and the Dow Jones index rose. Then, this morning, the FTSE 50 index futures rose sharply before the A-share market opened. Then A shares today's five major indexes are all red.
  Of course, the Shanghai Composite Index is still below 2,700 points, but the transaction amount exceeds 100 billion yuan.
  This thing still feels quite face! Originally, the other party was prepared with a lot of tools. If you don’t win, you won’t win the battlefield. However, unexpectedly, today’s gentle and tender invitation has been negotiated again.
  It is estimated that the American people are detaining the presidents of their country. They cannot let his old people be so capricious. In this way, they are all over the world, and things are expensive. The most detrimental thing is the American people and American companies.
  Moreover, in the end, it’s not a matter of dying for you, not just doing business, who is losing money and who is cheap? Of course, negotiations are better and costs are the lowest.
  For China, reducing the deficit is also good for us. After all, when we appreciate the renminbi, we can buy more good things and come back to meet the needs of the domestic people's life and production. Is it not good? Can't just earn money by exporting, isn't it worth spending money? Why do you want to buy American national debt, and collect some interest, not to mention that Wenzhou people can't see it, I can't see it. How many times has it been added, is it about 3%?
  It's better to spend the money, or else the CPI will rise, and the interest will be no more. I really can't figure out how to import more. Your country does not import, a group of people go abroad to travel, or to buy and buy, not as good as the national wholesale back, the nationals can still buy cheaper, at least the toll can be saved.
  I hope that the trade game can move in the direction of being noble.
  However, even if this matter is settled, can A-shares bottom out? I still can't feel it. The trade war is only one factor that restricts the development prospects of enterprises. More factors still cause investors to be very worried. For example, Wu Xiaoping said that private enterprises have completed the task of helping state-owned enterprises, and they can no longer do it. I believe that this is not a random statement. If this really represents the direction of future policy implementation, then so many small and medium-sized private enterprises in the A-share market will have to stop cooking? If this is the case, the stock market will not rise, and it is estimated to fall even more.
  The second news is heartbreaking and related to life. According to the announcement of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Li Guochun, a full-time member of the 17th China Development and Reform Commission, participated in the work of the 145th Issue Review Committee of the China Securities Regulatory Commission on September 11 to review the IPO application of Shenzhen Longli Technology Co., Ltd. According to the information, Li Guochun is currently the head of the Corporate Supervision Department of Heilongjiang Securities Regulatory Bureau and a senior accountant. However, on the morning of September 12, Li Guochun suddenly fainted in the canteen of the CSRC, and his heart stopped suddenly. According to a staff member, Li is 40 years old.
  I immediately saw an article: May there be no new shares in heaven.
  This new share is really not a good job, the trial is strict, the company may have lost a good development opportunity; the trial is loose, it is likely to release the fake company.
  Therefore, I have been calling for the choice of which company to go public. This kind of work will be given to the investors in the market to do it themselves. They want to make money and let them go to the company to choose the company. The SFC will supervise and investigate whether there is any It is enough to violate the regulations of the securities regulatory.
  How many people are there in the audit committee? It is necessary to review the listing of more than 400 companies throughout the year, as well as refinancing. The task is indeed too heavy and the responsibility is still great.
  Only 40 years old. Although I don't know medicine, I think that even if you die, you can't be alive for the next second. It won't work in the next second. It is estimated that there is physical discomfort before, but the burden is on the body, and I can't take time to check, thinking about how good I can be. Did not eliminate hidden dangers in time?
  Of course, there is also a social news that is quite outrageous. It is really frustrating for a person in Hunan to open a landed tiger on the square to suppress innocent people. The latest data is 11 deaths.
  In the third news, the scale of the first pension fund issued by China has come out. Although there are only more than 200 million, it feels good. After all, this is sold by China’s own channel. There is no channel for the bank, and there is no third party. Marketing. And it is the first one, and the sentiment on the market is quite heavy. Fortunately, Huaxia’s own employees were more powerful and subscribed for 43 million yuan.
  Someone recently asked, saying that the closure period of Jiashi Yuanhe is coming soon. At present, there are more discounts, about 20%, whether it is worth buying. From the introduction point of view, half of its assets are the shares of Sinopec's sales company. The current net value is calculated by the company at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12 times. In this way, it feels a bit high. Taking into account the discount factor, regardless of any taxes and fees, the annualized return rate of this asset is about 8%. However, if the 12-fold valuation is unsatisfactory, the net value will fall down and the transaction price will fall, so the implied yield is likely to be unavailable. Still wait and see.
  

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